Nj\u00eb post p\u00ebr Jordan Bardella-n edhe n\u00ebse Rassemblement National (RN) merr nj\u00eb shumic\u00eb relative.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb qeveri koalicioni, q\u00eb bashkon centrist\u00ebt, pjes\u00eb t\u00eb s\u00eb majt\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb djatht\u00ebs jolepeniste.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb ekzekutiv teknik p\u00ebr t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr vendin n\u00eb emergjenc\u00eb, n\u00eb pritje p\u00ebr t\u00eb thirrur zgjedhje t\u00eb reja politike, jo p\u00ebrpara korrikut 2025 sipas Kushtetut\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Tre skenar\u00eb k\u00ebta p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb p\u00ebrtej mjegull\u00ebs s\u00eb votimit t\u00eb nes\u00ebrm.<\/p>\n
Emmanuel Macron po studion opsionet e ndryshme sepse nd\u00ebrsa ka gjasa q\u00eb ai t\u00eb dal\u00eb elektoralisht shum\u00eb i dob\u00ebsuar n\u00eb qendrat e votimit, kreu i shtetit d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb mbetet n\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb loj\u00ebs politike.<\/p>\n
Dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb largohet nga k\u00ebndi q\u00eb ka v\u00ebn\u00eb veten me nj\u00eb vendim t\u00eb papritur q\u00eb rrezikon t\u00eb mos sjell\u00eb \u201csqarimin\u201d q\u00eb kishte shpresuar kur shpalli zgjedhjet e parakohshme politike.<\/p>\n
Votimi do t\u00eb zbuloj\u00eb nj\u00eb Franc\u00eb t\u00eb ndar\u00eb n\u00eb tre blloqe.<\/p>\n
Shumica absolute (289 deputet\u00eb) po largohet nga e djathta ekstreme dhe aleati i saj Eric Ciotti.<\/p>\n
Sipas parashikimeve t\u00eb fundit nga grupet sondazhiste, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb midis 200 dhe 230 vende p\u00ebr Elabe, nga 205 n\u00eb 230 p\u00ebr OpinionWay dhe nga 175 n\u00eb 205 p\u00ebr Ipsos.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vendin e dyt\u00eb, aleanca e krahut t\u00eb majt\u00eb Nouveau Front Populaire do t\u00eb ket\u00eb
\n165-190 p\u00ebr Elabe, 145-175 p\u00ebr OpinionWay dhe Ipsos.<\/p>\n
Blloku i tret\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ai i Ensemble, partis\u00eb s\u00eb Rilindjes Macroniste dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj q\u00eb sipas tre grupeve sondazhiste do t\u00eb ket\u00eb 120-140 p\u00ebr Elabe, 130-162 p\u00ebr OpinionWay, 118-148 p\u00ebr Ipsos.<\/p>\n
Edhe n\u00ebse Marine Le Pen vazhdon t\u00eb besoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb surpriz\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme, duke pretenduar se parashikimet \u201cnuk jan\u00eb nj\u00eb shkenc\u00eb ekzakte\u201d, paktet p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr kandidat\u00ebt e tret\u00eb i kan\u00eb hequr asaj t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn tet\u00ebdhjet\u00eb vende vendimtare n\u00eb let\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
\u201cFronti republikan \u00ebsht\u00eb i pjessh\u00ebm dhe i diferencuar sipas elektoratit, por ka pasur efekt\u201d, shpjegon drejtori i Elabe, Bernard Sanan\u00e8s, lidhur me marr\u00ebveshjet elektorale p\u00ebr t\u00eb bllokuar rrug\u00ebn drejt s\u00eb djatht\u00ebs ekstreme.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb dig\u00eb q\u00eb paraqet disa t\u00eb panjohura. \u201cTransferimi i votave nuk kalon 70% n\u00eb konfigurime t\u00eb ndryshme\u201d, vazhdon drejtori i Elabe. \u201cDhe \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i fort\u00eb kur ndodh nga votuesit e majt\u00eb drejt qendr\u00ebs sesa anasjelltas\u201d.<\/p>\n
Sipas institutit, n\u00eb rastin e nj\u00eb balotazhi midis kandidat\u00ebve t\u00eb ekstremit t\u00eb djatht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb majt\u00eb, gjysma e votuesve t\u00eb Ensemble mund t\u00eb zgjedhin t\u00eb abstenojn\u00eb, nj\u00eb e treta mund t\u00eb zgjedhin t\u00eb votojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb majt\u00ebn dhe pothuajse nj\u00eb e pesta (18%) p\u00ebr RN.<\/p>\n
Kujdes, p\u00ebrs\u00ebrisin anketuesit. Nj\u00eb nga \u00e7el\u00ebsat \u00ebsht\u00eb shtytja abstenuese dhe lindja e nj\u00eb \u201cfronti anti-sistem\u201d, i nxitur nga deklaratat Trumpiste t\u00eb Le Pen p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u201cparti t\u00eb vetme\u201d t\u00eb supozuar (Makronist\u00ebt dhe qendra) q\u00eb synon t\u00eb \u201cvjedh\u00eb\u201d nj\u00eb fitore q\u00eb dukej e premtuar.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb nga opsionet q\u00eb Macron po shqyrton \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb fillimisht t\u2019i jap\u00eb detyr\u00ebn e formimit t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb Jordan Bardella-s, president i RN.<\/p>\n
Dhe n\u00ebse numrat mungojn\u00eb, v\u00ebren konstitucionalisti Jean-Philippe Derosier, kjo do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u201cmarr\u00eb parasysh refuzimin ndaj tij dhe d\u00ebshtimin e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb qeverisur\u201d.<\/p>\n
Rruga tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicion qeveritar, duke mbledhur fundin e lart\u00eb t\u00eb projeksioneve p\u00ebr centrist\u00ebt (150 deputet\u00eb) dhe nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb s\u00eb majt\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Sipas Ipsos, socialist\u00ebt do t\u00eb kishin nga 51 deri n\u00eb 61 mandate, ekologjist\u00ebt nga 29 n\u00eb 37, partia komuniste nga 7 deri n\u00eb 9 mandate.<\/p>\n
100 ul\u00ebse, t\u00eb cilave mund t\u2019u shtohen Republicains anti-Ciotti, t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb kishin nga 35 deri n\u00eb 50 vende.<\/p>\n
Drejtori i Elabe \u00ebsht\u00eb skeptik. \u201cN\u00ebnshkrimi i marr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb q\u00ebndres\u00ebs nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb si n\u00ebnshkrimi i nj\u00eb kontrate qeveritare\u201d, komenton Sanan\u00e8s.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse vetot e kryq\u00ebzuara pengojn\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicion mes partive, do t\u00eb ekzistonte opsioni i nj\u00eb qeverie teknike dhe t\u00eb q\u00ebllimshme me nj\u00eb kryeminist\u00ebr t\u00eb paansh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Konsultimet mund t\u00eb zgjasin jav\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, qeveria aktuale duhet t\u00eb mbetet p\u00ebr t\u00eb menaxhuar pun\u00ebt aktuale dhe Gabriel Attal si kryeminist\u00ebr n\u00eb koh\u00eb suplementare.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrderisa t\u00eb dal\u00eb nj\u00eb zgjidhje.<\/p>\n
Dhe kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se Macron \u00ebsht\u00eb personi i duhur p\u00ebr ta gjetur at\u00eb. \u201cAi e ka humbur pozicionin e tij si arbit\u00ebr\u201d, v\u00ebren politologu J\u00e9r\u00f4me Jaffr\u00e9, i cili k\u00ebmb\u00ebngul n\u00eb \u201cshumic\u00ebn negative\u201d t\u00eb krijuar n\u00eb votime.<\/p>\n
France Insoumise e Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon \u2013 i cili tashm\u00eb ka p\u00ebrjashtuar \u00e7do mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb gjera \u2013 do t\u00eb kishte midis 58 dhe 68 vende. S\u00eb bashku me lepenist\u00ebt, midis 200 dhe 230 vendeve, dhe disa Republicain m\u00eb t\u00eb zjarrt\u00eb, do t\u00eb lindte nj\u00eb bllok i kat\u00ebrt: ai q\u00eb pengon \u00e7do qeveri, duke tundur 289 vendet e nevojshme p\u00ebr vot\u00ebn e mosbesimit.<\/p>\n
\u201cNj\u00eb shum\u00eb forcash negative q\u00eb mund t\u00eb paralizojn\u00eb Dhom\u00ebn, pa mund\u00ebsi zgjedhjesh t\u00eb reja p\u00ebr t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb vit\u201d, vijon Jaffr\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Francez\u00ebt q\u00eb do t\u00eb ndihen t\u00eb leht\u00ebsuar nga d\u00ebshtimi i RN-p\u00ebrfundon politologu-nuk do t\u00eb festojn\u00eb gjat\u00eb, duke par\u00eb kriz\u00ebn e pabesueshme politike q\u00eb do t\u00eb shpaloset.<\/p>\n
The post Strategjia e Macron: T\u00eb djeg\u00eb Bardell\u00ebn, pastaj nj\u00eb pakt republikan<\/a> appeared first on Albanian Post<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nj\u00eb post p\u00ebr Jordan Bardella-n edhe n\u00ebse Rassemblement National (RN) merr nj\u00eb shumic\u00eb relative. Nj\u00eb qeveri koalicioni, q\u00eb bashkon centrist\u00ebt, pjes\u00eb t\u00eb s\u00eb majt\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb djatht\u00ebs jolepeniste. Nj\u00eb ekzekutiv teknik p\u00ebr t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr vendin n\u00eb emergjenc\u00eb, n\u00eb pritje p\u00ebr t\u00eb thirrur zgjedhje t\u00eb reja politike, jo p\u00ebrpara korrikut 2025 sipas Kushtetut\u00ebs. Tre skenar\u00eb k\u00ebta […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6019,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiogjilani.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}